Music Copyright Hits Record $47.2B, Now 38% Larger Than Film
By Trevor Loucks
Founder & Lead Developer, Dynamoi
The music industry’s annual macroeconomic health check is in, and the patient is stronger than ever—though the growth spurt is officially over.
Former Spotify Chief Economist Will Page released his Global Value of Music Copyright report on Wednesday, pegging the industry’s total worth at a record $47.2 billion for 2024. While the topline number is cause for champagne, the underlying data signals a shift from the "easy money" recovery era to a harder grind for efficiency.
Breaking down the billions
The report, which aggregates data from labels, publishers, and collective management organizations (CMOs), reveals that the industry has nearly doubled in value since hitting its nadir of $25 billion in 2014. However, the explosive post-pandemic "slingshot" effect has vanished.
Year-over-year growth has cooled to 5.2%, a stark contrast to the double-digit percentages seen in 2021-2023. This is what normalization looks like: the market has stabilized, and future gains will come from optimization rather than pure adoption velocity.
Here is how the 2024 revenue pie splits:
| Sector | Revenue (USD) | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recorded Music | $29.0 Billion | 61% | +5% |
| Publishing (CMOs) | $13.6 Billion | 29% | +8% |
| Publishing (Direct) | $4.6 Billion | 10% | -1% |
Key insight: While direct publishing revenue dipped slightly this year, it has exploded by 112% over the last decade, proving that publishers are increasingly successfully bypassing traditional collection societies to deal directly with DSPs.
Music’s asset class victory
For investors wondering why catalogs are trading at aggressive multiples—like The Weeknd’s recent recapitalization at a reported 18.2x—the report offers a definitive answer: Music is now a better business than movies.
In a massive structural reversal, the value of music copyright ($47.2B) is now approximately 38% larger than the global cinema box office. Compare this to 2019, when the box office was 33% larger than music.
Why the flip happened:
- Reliability: Music effectively transitioned to a subscription model generating recurring revenue (
LTV), while cinema remains trapped in a volatile, hit-driven sales cycle. - Ubiquity: Music monetizes passive consumption across infinite contexts; film requires dedicated attention.
- Yield: The "distributor's share" of a movie ticket is roughly 50%, whereas the rights holder's share in music is significantly higher, making it a more efficient vehicle for capital.
The local repertoire takeover
The era of Anglo-American export dominance is fading. Page identifies "Glocalization" as the primary driver of consumption, where local repertoire dominates domestic charts in markets from India to Latin America. This creates a "drying up of trade" for cross-border hits.
Major labels are reacting in real-time. Just this week, Sony Music acquired a 49% stake in Vietnam’s 1Label, and Saregama picked up a 28% stake in India's Bhansali Productions. The strategy is clear: if you can't export Western stars to these markets, you must buy the infrastructure that creates the local stars.
Navigating the new plateau
With organic streaming growth slowing to 5.2%, the strategy for 2025 must shift from acquisition to extraction. The "rising tide" that lifted all boats is settling, and labels must now focus on increasing ARPU through price hikes and new royalty models.
The pivot: We are already seeing the majors diversify beyond streaming. Universal Music Group’s recent expansion of UMusic Shops signals a move toward high-margin "superfan" monetization and physical retail to supplement the slowing digital growth.
For the industry strategist, the $47.2 billion figure validates the sector's recovery, but the slowing growth rate is the warning shot. The next billion won't come from simply signing up more users; it will come from better monetization of the users we already have.
About the Editor
Trevor Loucks is the founder and lead developer of Dynamoi, where he focuses on the convergence of music business strategy and advertising technology. He focuses on applying the latest ad-tech techniques to artist and record label campaigns so they compound downstream music royalty growth.
